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Project May 7, 2025

A Copper Giant Navigating Power Plays Between China and the U.S.

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The TAZARA railway between Dar-es-Salaam in Tanzania and New Kapiri Mposhi in Zambia takes 46 hours to travel from end to end. The rail network was built in the 1970s by Chinese contractors, connecting Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. It’s existence is crucial to a new race to transport mineral resources as part of the much-lauded ‘green transition,’ from inland countries in the region to major coast ports. Both Chinese and U.S. entities have invested billions of dollars to expand and improve Africa’s infrastructure. China is Africa’s largest two-way trading partner ($254 billion in 2021, four times bigger than U.S.-Africa trade) as well as the largest foreign direct investment provider (double that of the U.S.).

One of Zambia’s challenges in navigating these dynamics has been finding a viable route to export its copper without the predatory, colonial mode of private ownership, which extended well into the independence period. Furthermore, 54% of viable minerals are located on or near Indigenous lands—including 10% of the world’s copper reserves. By 2032, Zambia hopes to produce 3 million tons of copper annually, up from the current 800,000 tons.

As China and the U.S. duel over access to critical minerals in the Copperbelt––which constitutes 70% of the nation’s exports––will Zambia be able to navigate relations to its own benefit?

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