Iran: The end of Tehran Spring?

Iason Athanasiadis, for the Pulitzer Center

Tehran tensed itself for more violence on Monday as the Iranian government denied opposition politician Mir Hossein Mousavi a permit to hold an opposition rally and Iranian state media reported that any attendees will be arrested and charged with "incitement".

"The Interior Ministry issued a statement and said no permission had been issued for a rally ... The holding of such a gathering would be illegal," said the radio. There was still no news on whether Mousavi would attend the meeting but Reuters reported he was still pushing for a permit to be issued. "It would be really reckless of him today to come to the demonstration...Hundreds of thousands of people will converge on the square in what is an illegal demonstration and there will be a backlash," said a political analyst who asked for anonymity. "He doesn't have the ability or willingness to go all the way."

The meeting is to be held at Tehran's Revolution Square, a symbolic space where Tehranis gathered for anti-Shah demonstrations during the 1978-79 Revolution. The regime has used Revolution Square since as a staging point for anniversary rallies that begin there and end on Freedom (Azadi) Square.

Mousavi has alleged the presidential election was rigged and called for its annulment after official results gave Ahmadinejad almost two thirds of the vote. Mousavi, a former premier, took about 34 percent, according to the official results which were announced after a record election turnout and were allegedly counted by election officials in a few hours.

Rioting has been ongoing in Tehran for the past two days between opposition supporters and riot police. Demonstrators have set fires to key intersections and thrown rocks at law enforcement units. Ordinary Tehranis have taken to the street using passive resistance tactics to express their anger with the alleged vote-rigging such as honking their horns and shouting slogans such as "The silence of every Muslim is a sin by the Quran" and "Allahu Akbar," in an echo of the 1979 Revolution when residents climbed to their roofs every night to shout against the Shah.

The regime is concerned that the election result has not been ratified by the Guardian Council of the Constitution, a body composed of six clerics and six jurists and charged with supervising elections and approving candidates for several government bodies. President Ahmadinejad's allegations of clerical corruption have made him unpopular in some religious circles as was evidenced by an announcement by a clerical group issuing a statement requesting an annulment of the ballot.

"Sepah (Revolutionary Guard) is deploying soldiers around (Revolution) square and they're getting ready to crack down hard," said a student activist who spent the night away from his dormitory after Bassij paramilitaries stormed another dormitory belonging to Tehran University.

The last time Iran faced widespread demonstrations was in July 1999. At that time then President Mohammad Khatami refused to heed protesters' demands for reform of the Islamic Republic. He stood by as riot police cracked down and left a generation of reformists feeling betrayed.

The current demonstrations are larger in scope and spread across Iran but, following the arrest of an estimated 170 activists on Saturday night, similarly lacks an organizing structure. "These crowds are spontaneous, sporadic, have no structure to their action and it's going nowhere. It's an internal affair, that's all," added the analyst.